India, which relies on rain for the vast share of its water, forecast that monsoon will be normal this year, potentially bolstering the outlook for agriculture production and economic growth. 

Showers during the June-September season are likely to be 96 per cent of a long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The estimate comes a day after private forecaster Skymet had predicted a below-normal monsoon, saying that rains may reach only 94 per cent of the benchmark.

Hundreds of millions of farmers across Asia’s third-largest economy depend on the annual monsoon to nourish their fields. Ample rains may boost production of crops like rice, soybeans, corn and sugar cane, helping to lower food prices and aiding the government’s efforts to cool inflation.

The weather office has said that the probability of a normal monsoon is as much as 35 per cent this year. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the historical average is considered normal. Last year’s monsoon was 106 per cent of the average, boosting foodgrain output in 2022-23. The weather department’s forecast has a margin of error of 5 per cent. 

Based on the IMD’s forecast probability, the risk of lower rainfall remains, Anubhuti Sahay, the Mumbai-based South Asia chief economist of Standard Chartered, has said. She expects inflation to hover at 5.3 per cent this financial year and food inflation at 5.7 per cent, given falling wheat stockpiles, rising rural wages and prospects for less rain.